The Exponential Phase of the Primary Bull Market Is Still to Come (but not if we wait for the mid-terms to stop the mad-king).

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As Dougald Lamont puts it on Substack, the Trump administration is…”a disgusting orgy of brazen criminal corruption and self-dealing,”. He goes on:

Trump has enriched himself by billions of dollars with crypto-currency scams that allow foreign states and criminals to bribe him directly. There’s the $400-million Qatari jet as a gift to the President.

Howard Lutnick runs a cryptocurrency company that launders money for international criminal syndicates, including human traffickers and drug traffickers.

Yes, these people can be taken. They are criminals. They are openly and blatantly breaking the law.

The Trump administration is part of Putin’s international crime syndicate that must be stopped, and I’m not sure the economy can wait 18-months until the mid-term elections. If the looting of America’s wealth continues until then, we will have a major recession and land-cycle collapse sooner rather than later.

The stage is already set for the 18–20 year stock market and real estate bubble to burst. The only question is whether it occurs in 2026 or later.

On the optimistic side, the last year or two of the primary bull trend are usually the most upwardly-explosive. It is when the “herd” is exuberant and believing “it is different this time”, that we know we are close to the top. We are not there yet, and with the fund-flows being as strong as they are, the market is supported for now. Remember, like I have written often, the US economy is massive and has a huge inertia which requires a proportional impulse to change its direction (primary trend).

I believe that we could be replicating the late 1990s “tech-bubble” pattern (black-rectangles below).

Just like the 1990s’, the three ingredients required for a primary bull trend are currently in place :

• A transformational technology; AI.
• Increasing money-creation; the combination of spending-deficits and bank credit. (Note: in the late 90s, Clinton had budget surpluses, but bank credit exploded higher and more than made up for it…until rates were raised in 2000 and made private debt un-servicable, which led to the sale of assets and the bear market. Today, the money-creation is even healthier than in the 90s because the deficit continues to grow and the bank credit is growing from a low relative level).
• Incredulity and fear (in the ‘herd’) of the technology and the bull market itself .

The Trump/Putin crime syndicate not withstanding, the exponential phase of the stock and real estate markets is still to come.

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